Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence projects the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report forecasts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025, and over 80 million by 2028. This makes the Switch 2 the "clear winner," according to the report.
Projected Market Leadership
The report positions Nintendo as the console market leader, surpassing Microsoft and Sony due to the Switch 2's anticipated early 2025 release and limited initial competition. This early market entry, coupled with strong consumer anticipation, is expected to generate significant sales, potentially exceeding Nintendo's manufacturing capacity.
Limited Competition, Strong Potential
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, leaving a considerable window for the Switch 2's dominance. The report suggests only one of these later releases will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.
Nintendo's Continued Success
Nintendo's success is further underscored by Circana's data, showing the Switch surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales, becoming the second best-selling console in US history. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
Positive Industry Outlook
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive picture for the video game industry as a whole. After a period of decline, the industry is projected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 anticipated as a particularly strong year. This growth is fueled by new product releases, including the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, which are expected to boost consumer spending. The global gaming audience is also projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the increasing popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports.
